Is a 6-Point Lead Enough for the Liberals as Regional Divisions Deepen?

By Marko Atem

On Day 20 of the 36-day federal election campaign, the Liberals have regained a six-point lead over the Conservatives.

A three-day rolling poll by Nanos Research, ending April 10, shows the Liberals at 44 per cent support nationally, maintaining a lead over the Conservatives, who remain at 38 per cent.

Support for the NDP holds at nine per cent, with the Bloc Québécois at six, the Green at three, and the People’s Party at two per cent.

Regionally, Chief Data Scientist Nik Nanos describes the current political landscape as an “East versus West showdown.” The Liberals are leading in Eastern Canada, while the Conservatives are ahead in the Prairies. British Columbia remains a close race.

Nanos says the East-West divide reflects deep political tensions. “For voters in the Prairies, it may be hard to understand why people support the Liberals. In the East, people may not fully grasp how strong support is for the Conservatives in the West.

Who is the preferred prime minister?

When asked who they prefer as prime minister, 47 per cent of Canadians chose Mark Carney, maintaining a clear lead over Pierre Poilievre, who has gained a few points in the past week and now stands at 34 per cent.

                         Graphic showing Canada’s Preferred Prime Minister in the upcoming elections for April, 2025

By gender

A gender breakdown of the Nanos tracking poll shows that women remain significantly more likely to support the Liberals than men. Among women surveyed, 51 per cent said they would vote Liberal, while 29 per cent support the Conservatives. Eleven per cent back the NDP.

Liberal support among men has dropped to 36 per cent, compared to 47 per cent for the Conservatives. Only six per cent of men said they would vote for the NDP.

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